Ultra Lotto 6/58: what one PHP 20 combination is worth at each jackpot level
Published — UTC
A large jackpot makes every Ultra Lotto 6/58 combination look more valuable. This article separates two questions: how likely each prize tier is, and what the average return from all tiers comes to. The odds follow from a simple count. The prize amounts come from one published draw, so they are a sample rather than a fixed schedule. Figures marked as our calculation can be checked with the arithmetic shown.
The odds come from one count
An Ultra Lotto combination is six different numbers from 1 to 58, and order does not matter. There are C(58,6) = 40,475,358 possible combinations, and each draw picks one of them at random. PCSO’s jackpot odds of 1 in 40,475,358, as reported by GMA News on 15 September 2026, match this count.
A lower prize needs fewer matches. Counting the combinations that produce each match count gives the table below. The third column is our calculation.
| Match count | Combinations that match | Odds (our calculation) | Amount in the 13 Oct 2026 result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 (jackpot) | 1 | 1 in 40,475,358 | Jackpot PHP 392,060,109.64; no winner that draw |
| 5 of 6 | 312 | about 1 in 129,729 | PHP 150,000.00 each; 10 winners |
| 4 of 6 | 19,890 | about 1 in 2,035 | PHP 1,902.17 each; 736 winners |
| 3 of 6 | 442,000 | about 1 in 92 | PHP 100.00 each; 18,787 winners |
The jackpot and the 6/58 winner counts come from the PCSO results search page, as indexed on 15 October 2026. Our server could not open pcso.gov.ph directly, so the lower-tier amounts come from a third-party results page that reproduces PCSO figures. Treat those three amounts as unverified until you compare them with the official PCSO result for the draw you care about.
Put together, the chance of matching at least three numbers is about 1 in 88 for a single combination (our calculation: 1,000 combinations give about 11 chances of a prize at 3 of 6 or better).
Expected value from the lower tiers
To get an average, multiply each tier amount by its chance and add the results. Using the 13 October amounts as a fixed snapshot:
PHP 150,000 × 312 ÷ 40,475,358 ≈ PHP 1.16
PHP 1,902.17 × 19,890 ÷ 40,475,358 ≈ PHP 0.93
PHP 100 × 442,000 ÷ 40,475,358 ≈ PHP 1.09
The total is about PHP 3.18 before tax. PCSO has stated that prizes above PHP 10,000 are subject to a 20% tax, as shown in its September 2025 winner release. Only the PHP 150,000 tier crosses that line in this example. After that tax the lower-tier total is about PHP 2.95 per combination.
The lower tiers are not guaranteed to stay at these amounts. Read PHP 2.95 as one draw’s snapshot, not as a forecast.
What the jackpot adds
The jackpot adds 0.8 × J ÷ 40,475,358 to the average, where J is the jackpot before tax. Each PHP 1 million of jackpot adds about PHP 0.02 to the expected value of one combination. This treats the whole jackpot as going to one ticket. When several tickets share a jackpot, each winner gets a part, so the numbers below are an upper bound.
| Jackpot before tax | Average value of one PHP 20 combination (our calculation) | Share of the PHP 20 cost |
|---|---|---|
| PHP 100 million | about PHP 4.93 | 25% |
| PHP 299.25 million (15 Sep 2026) | about PHP 8.87 | 44% |
| PHP 392.06 million (13 Oct 2026) | about PHP 10.70 | 54% |
| about PHP 862.5 million | PHP 20.00 | 100% |
The break-even point is about PHP 862.5 million before tax. The published jackpots in this article are well below it. Even at break-even the figure assumes no sharing and that the entire jackpot is paid to one ticket, which is a best case rather than a typical outcome.
A worked example with three and ten combinations
PCSO’s winner release for a 2025 draw said a Lucky Pick combination was worth PHP 20. Suppose you buy three combinations for PHP 60. Our calculation gives a chance of about 3.4% that at least one of them reaches 3 of 6 or better. For ten combinations at PHP 200, the same chance is about 10.9%.
The prize for 3 of 6 in the example above is PHP 100. For ten combinations, the expected lower-tier return is about PHP 29.50 from the snapshot amounts, against a PHP 200 cost. A single prize can be far larger than the average, which is why the average and the single outcome should be kept apart when you read a result.
What these numbers do not tell you
The model assumes each combination has the same chance in every draw. Under that assumption, a run of draws without a jackpot winner does not change the next draw’s odds. The model does not predict a particular draw, and it does not depend on how many people bought a combination.
Lucky Pick and numbers you choose yourself have the same odds in this calculation. A winning ticket still has to be claimed: PCSO’s winners release states that a prize must be claimed within one year of the draw date. In a 2023 jackpot report, PCSO’s advice was that a lost ticket cannot be claimed, a damaged ticket may fail the validating machine, and only the person who signed the ticket can claim the prize.
The practical reading is simple. An average value below the price means that, on average, a combination costs more than it returns. Set a fixed budget before a draw, and treat the spend as entertainment rather than as a way to recover money.
Sources and checks
- Jackpot odds of 1 in 40,475,358 and the PHP 299,250,664.14 jackpot on 15 September 2026: GMA News, checked 15 October 2026.
- Combination, jackpot and jackpot-winner count for the 13 October 2026 draw: PCSO results search page, read from the indexed excerpt because direct access was refused from our server.
- Draw days (Tuesday, Friday and Sunday at 9 PM) and the one-year claim rule: PCSO news release, 26 March 2026.
- The 20% tax above PHP 10,000 and the PHP 20 Lucky Pick price: PCSO news release, 10 September 2025.
- Lower-tier amounts for 13 October 2026, unverified against PCSO: third-party PCSO results page.
The odds, combinations and expected values above were recalculated from the formulas shown. The chart was drawn from the same numbers. No draw, purchase or account was used to make this article.